What just happened with Donald Trump in a New York court, and what does it mean for the future?
I’m writing this mostly for the benefit of my non-American friends, but some Americans who haven’t been following the news may find it informative as well. Let’s start with this: I’m writing this strictly on my own, and this doesn’t reflect the views of any organization I’m affiliated with. That said, let’s get on with some questions and answers:
What happened on Thursday, May 30?
Trump was convicted of 34 felony counts by a jury in New York. The trial was over New York state law about the falsification of business records. (This has often been called a “hush money” trial, but paying someone to keep quiet isn’t a crime. The crime was misrepresenting the payment as a fee for the practice of law.)
Normally, falsification of business records is only a misdemeanor (a fairly minor offense), but the jury found that the falsification was done to cover up another crime, which makes it a felony (a more serious offense).
Why was this trial just about business records? Isn’t he accused of more serious things?
The New York trial about business records is one of four criminal cases where Trump is a defendant. Trump’s lawyers have used a lot of delaying tactics, so the New York case was the first one to go to trial.
Trump is also facing charges in a state court in Georgia (the American state, not the central Asian republic) about trying to interfere with the 2020 election there. In addition, he’s facing charges in federal court in Washington, D.C., over his role in the coup attempt that involved storming of the Capitol building on Jan. 6, 2021. And finally, he’s facing charges in federal court in Florida about unlawfully retaining classified documents and refusing to hand them over when asked.
What is the difference between state and federal courts?
The relationship between the state governments and the federal government is kind of like the relationship between the member states of the European Union and the central government of the EU in Brussels. Bulgaria and Spain have their own laws, so something that’s legal in Bulgaria might be illegal in Spain, and vice versa. But both are part of the European Union, so European Union law applies in both countries. (I’ve oversimplified this a lot, but I doubt readers want a detailed explanation of the differences between the federal government of the United States and the European Union.)
Who made up the jury in the New York state trial?
They were 12 people who lived in Manhattan, the most densely populated part of New York City. They were selected from Manhattan because that is where the crime took place. A whole lot of people were selected at random for the jury pool, then they were narrowed down with the prosecution and the defense each removing people. Each side could remove an unlimited number of people “for cause,” meaning that they could cite a specific reason why the prospective juror wouldn’t be appropriate for the jury. They could also remove a limited number of people with “peremptory challenges,” meaning they don’t have to give any reason for removing them.
Could one person on the jury have changed the result?
Yes. The jury had to be unanimous to convict. If one person had held out and refused to convict, there would have been a mistrial and they would have had to start over. (The same thing goes for a jury where only one wants to convict and all the rest want to acquit. If they can’t reach a unanimous decision, it’s a mistrial.)
Will Trump be locked up because of this?
He might be, but don’t expect it anytime soon. Sentencing is set for July 11; the judge can give anything from probation to four years in prison. But even if the judge sentences Trump to prison, he can remain free while he pursues an appeal. It’s highly unlikely that Trump will be locked up before the general election on Nov. 5.
What other consequences besides potentially going to prison are there?
Trump lives in Florida, where state law normally prohibits felons from voting before they’ve completed their sentences. I’ve seen conflicting reports about how this would apply to a conviction from out of state, so I’m not certain that he would lose the right to vote. But even if he does lose the right to vote and there’s no way to restore his right to vote under current Florida law, it’s entirely possible that the state legislature will pass a special law allowing Trump to vote this year.
Of course, if he can’t vote, he can’t run for president, right?
Nope. The rules for who is eligible for federal office are in the Constitution. The rules for who may vote are set by state laws, and they aren’t the same. It’s not just theoretically possible for a prison inmate to run for president; it’s happened several times that small parties nominate prison inmates. As I said before, it’s highly unlikely that Trump will be incarcerated before the 2024 election, but even if that happens, that won’t affect his eligibility. A much more realistic scenario is that Trump could lose the 2024 election, go to prison at some point after that, then run from prison in 2028.
What does this mean for Trump’s election chances in 2024?
It’s not just possible, but realistic, that Trump could be elected in November. The conventional wisdom is that the conviction hurts Trump, but that’s not even a certainty. Trump insists that the conviction is illegitimate and the result of a corrupt judicial system; many of his supporters believe that. The conviction could create a backlash of sympathy for Trump. Also, the conviction could cause many people who might otherwise vote for Joe Biden to not bother voting because they will be overconfident that Trump will lose.
Also, there are plenty of other issues at stake in the election. They include, but are not limited to, reproductive freedom, economic conditions, border security and foreign policy.
In addition, there are other candidates besides Trump and Biden who are running. Each state has its own laws about ballot access, so not all of them will be on the ballot in every state, but other candidates I expect will be on the ballot in at least some states include Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Chase Oliver (Libertarian Party), Jill Stein (Green Party) and Cornel West. It’s unclear how these candidates will affect the race, but it’s entirely possible that one or more of them could draw enough votes away from a major candidate to allow the other major candidate to win a key state in the Electoral College.